How prediction markets work—without the jargon.

Traxion is a points-based prediction market. You use virtual Traxion Points to forecast real-world outcomes, build a track record, complete challenges, and compare your forecasting skill with other users. No real money is involved.

Open a market, choose YES or NO, enter how many Traxion Points you want to use, review the live quote, and select Buy Contracts. The quote shows how many contracts you will receive and how your trade may move the market probability.

Choose YES when you believe the event described by the market will happen under its resolution rules. Choose NO when you believe it will not happen. Always review the description, closing time, source, and resolution rules.

TP means Traxion Points. TP are the virtual points used to buy and sell prediction contracts. Winning contracts settle for TP, and TP have no cash or monetary value.

XP means Experience Points. XP cannot be spent or traded. It measures participation and accomplishments and increases your forecasting level. You earn XP from predictions, settlements, achievements, and challenges.

TP are used inside markets: you spend TP to buy contracts and receive TP from sales or settlement. XP measures progression: it increases your level but cannot be spent.

Every 250 XP increases your Forecasting Level. Your profile and the header show your current level, total XP, and progress toward the next level.

A contract represents one unit of an outcome. If your outcome wins when the market settles, each remaining winning contract pays 1 TP. Losing contracts pay 0 TP.

Contract quantity depends on the average price. If YES averages about 49¢, spending 100 TP buys roughly 204 contracts because 100 divided by 0.49 is approximately 204.

The displayed YES percentage is the market’s current implied probability. Buying YES generally raises it, buying NO generally lowers it, and selling can move it in the opposite direction.

Price impact is how much your order changes the market probability while it executes. Larger orders usually have more impact, so every contract in an order may not execute at the probability shown before the trade.

Traxion uses an automated market-making formula. Trades change the number of YES or NO contracts held by the market, and the formula converts that balance into a new probability.

Current value is the estimated TP you would receive by selling your remaining contracts at the current market price. It is not the final settlement payout.

P/L means profit or loss. Unrealized P/L estimates the gain or loss on contracts you still own. Realized P/L is the gain or loss already locked in through a sale or settlement. Total P/L combines both.

Traxion currently displays and returns whole TP in some calculations. A value just below 100 TP may be rounded down to 99 TP, creating a displayed loss of 1 TP even when the underlying value is very close to the purchase amount.

Yes. In Portfolio or the market’s Sell tab, choose 25%, 50%, 75%, All, or enter an exact number of contracts. The quote shows TP returned, realized P/L, contracts remaining, and probability movement.

If the market moves in your favor, selling can lock in some or all of the position’s increased value. You can also reduce risk while keeping part of the position for final settlement.

New purchases and sales stop after the closing time. An administrator then reviews the stated resolution source and settles the market as YES, NO, or Void. Times are displayed in Eastern Time.

Each remaining winning contract pays 1 TP. The payout is added to your available TP balance, the position is marked Won, and settlement activity appears in Notifications.

Losing contracts settle for 0 TP. The position is marked Lost, its remaining cost becomes a realized loss, and the result becomes part of your forecasting record.

A voided market refunds the remaining cost basis of open positions. Any portions sold earlier remain completed sales and are not reversed.

Your streak increases when you make at least one prediction on consecutive calendar days. Multiple predictions on the same day do not add extra days. Missing a day resets the active streak.

Achievements are permanent milestones such as making your first prediction, forecasting across several markets, reaching trading-volume goals, or recording wins. Many achievements award bonus XP.

Daily and weekly challenges track real prediction activity automatically. Daily challenges reset at midnight ET. Weekly challenges reset Monday at midnight ET. A challenge awards XP once per period.

Open Challenges once each day and claim your check-in reward. The seven-day cycle awards both spendable TP and progression XP, with increasingly valuable rewards and the largest bonus on Day 7.

Daily rewards use Eastern Time. Missing a calendar day resets the reward cycle, so your next claim begins again at Day 1. Claiming a reward does not require making a prediction.

No. A daily reward is a once-per-day check-in bonus you claim manually. Daily challenges are activity missions that complete automatically when you meet their forecasting requirements.

Seasons are limited-time forecasting competitions with live standings, eligibility requirements, XP prizes, and permanent Top 3 profile badges. Each season explains its dates, category, scoring method, and minimum settled calls.

The leaderboard includes Overall, XP, Accuracy, Profit, and Streak rankings with time and category filters. Overall skill uses smoothed accuracy, realized P/L, and level rather than TP balance alone.

A user is Provisional until they have at least three settled YES or NO calls in the selected view. Provisional users remain visible but rank below fully eligible users in Overall and Accuracy rankings.

Yes. Use Share on X from Portfolio or the market’s position panel. The post includes your prediction challenge and a direct link where another user can review and play the market.

Follow forecasters from their public profiles. Activity shows their public prediction direction, achievements, and season awards in chronological order, with direct links to profiles and markets.

No. Prediction activity can show that a public forecaster selected YES or NO, but it does not display the amount of TP spent, contracts purchased, or other position-size details.

You receive a notification linking to the new follower’s profile. Your profile also displays follower and following counts. You can keep prediction activity out of feeds by making your profile private.

Every market has a discussion section where verified users can share reasoning, reply to other forecasters, and like useful contributions. Comments remain attached to the market after resolution.

Only when you choose to display it. If you have predicted on the market, you can optionally add a YES or NO badge to your comment. Traxion never displays your TP amount or contract quantity in the discussion.

You can edit or delete your own comments. Use Report on another user’s comment to send it to the administrator moderation queue. Authors receive notifications for replies and likes.

Notifications include achievements, level-ups, challenge completions, position purchases and sales, market settlements, and reminders to maintain an active streak.

Yes. Open Notification Settings from the Account menu or Notifications page. You can independently control market movement, position activity, closing reminders, resolutions, social activity, and gamification updates. Essential account and security notices remain enabled.

Your optional email categories, digest frequency, and quiet hours control which nonessential updates Traxion may send. Essential verification, password, security, and account messages remain enabled while your account is active.

Turn off optional email in Notification Settings or use the unsubscribe link included with optional messages. You can also visit jointrax.com/unsubscribe. See the public Email Practices page for details.

Email verification helps protect accounts and is required before making predictions. After registration, check your inbox for the verification message and secure confirmation link.

Every verified member has a personal invitation link. When a new user joins through that link and verifies their email, both users receive the TP and XP amounts shown in the Invite Friends center.

Rewards are issued only after the invited user completes email verification. Pending registrations appear in your referral history but do not earn rewards until verification succeeds.

Yes. The Invite Friends center can send a branded invitation through Traxion’s centralized email service. Invitation sending is limited to reduce spam and duplicate invitations.

Yes. Open your Profile settings to upload an avatar. Your photo appears in navigation, activity, profiles, and leaderboards.

Open Account Settings from the Account menu. It displays your current sign-in email, verification status, membership date, and most recent sign-in.

Open Account Settings, select Change email address, and confirm the request with your current password. Traxion sends a verification link to the new address, while your existing email remains active until verification succeeds.

Open Account Settings and enter your current password followed by a new password of at least 12 characters containing uppercase, lowercase, and a number. A security confirmation is sent after the change.

No. TP and XP are virtual, entertainment-only units. Traxion does not accept wagers, deposits, or withdrawals and does not award cash prizes. Points cannot be purchased for cash, redeemed, transferred for value, or exchanged for money.