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Will the Federal Reserve cut rates at its September 2026 meeting?

Resolves Yes if the upper bound of the federal funds target range announced on September 16, 2026 is lower than the upper bound in effect immediately before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Otherwise resolves No.

45%YES probability
Volume0 TP
Predictors0
ClosesSep 16 · 1:55 PM ET

Probability history

Market movement

45% YES
0%50%100%

Resolution rules

Resolves Yes if the upper bound of the federal funds target range announced on September 16, 2026 is lower than the upper bound in effect immediately before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Otherwise resolves No.

Primary sourceFederal Reserve FOMC statement for September 15-16, 2026

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