Will a U.S. federal government shutdown begin by December 12, 2026?
Resolves Yes if a lapse in federal appropriations causes the U.S. government to begin an official full or partial shutdown at any time on or before December 12, 2026, 11:59 p.m. ET. A funding bill enacted before a lapse resolves No after the deadline.
41%YES probability
Volume500 TP
Predictors1
ClosesDec 12 · 11:59 PM ET
Probability history
Market movement
0%50%100%
Resolution rules
Resolves Yes if a lapse in federal appropriations causes the U.S. government to begin an official full or partial shutdown at any time on or before December 12, 2026, 11:59 p.m. ET. A funding bill enacted before a lapse resolves No after the deadline.
Primary sourceOfficial OMB, OPM, Congress, and White House announcements: https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/
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